AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are trading mostly 3 cents in the green at midday. Rains over the next week could slow corn harvest in most of the WCB. Next Friday at 11:00 a.m. will be the release of the Sept 1 Grain Stocks report. The wire services are accumulating trade estimates today, with release expected over the weekend or on Monday. Total export commitments for the 17/18 marketing year are now 35.3% behind this time last year. They are just 23% of the current full year USDA export projection, compared to 32% a year ago and the average of 30%. China’s Sinograin sold 1.75 MMT of the 2.1 MMT corn offered at their auction of state reserves on Friday.

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.53 1/4, up 3 cents,

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.66, up 3 cents,

May 18 Corn is at $3.74 1/4, up 3 cents

Jul 18 Corn is at $3.81, up 3 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are currently 11 1/4 to 11 1/2 cents higher on Friday. Oct soy meal is up $5/ton, with nearby bean oil steady at 34.1 cents/ lb. The USDA announced another private export sale of 190,000 MT of soybeans to Mexico for 17/18 delivery through their daily reporting system. The total of all announcements for this week is 1.801 MMT for 17/18 and 120,000 for 18/19. New crop Soybean export commitments are lagging last year by 17.9% at this time. They are 32% of the USDA full year estimate, vs. 42% last year and the average of 47% for this date. In other words, catch up is needed!

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.82 1/4, up 11 1/2 cents,

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $9.92 1/2, up 11 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $10.01 3/4, up 11 1/2 cents,

May 18 Soybeans are at $10.09 3/4, up 11 1/4 cents,

Oct 17 Soybean Meal is at $314.00, up $5.00

Oct 17 Soybean Oil is at $34.10, unch,

Wheat

Wheat futures are showing most CBT and KC contracts with 1 to 3 cent losses. MPLS is the strongest, 1 to 4 cents higher in most nearby contracts. The USDA will release the Small Grains report a week from today, at 11:00 a.m. CDT. We will get a better idea of 2017 wheat production in that report, particularly spring wheat and harvested acres. All wheat export commitments are now trailing this time last year by 2.9%. Compared to the USDA export projection, they are now 50% of the total, vs. 51% last year and the average pace of 53%.

Dec 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.50, down 2 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.48 1/2, down 1 cent,

Dec 17 MGEX Wheat is at $6.27 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are posting 75 cent to $1.025 gains at midday, on stronger cash trade. Feeder cattle futures are mixed, with Oct down a dime and deferred contracts higher. The CME feeder cattle index was up 65 cents from the previous day at $151.11 on September 20.Wholesale beef prices were steady to higher in the Friday morning report. Choice was unchanged from last night at $191.51, while select boxes were up 9 cents at $188.50. Week to date FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 464,000 through Thursday, which is 4,000 fewer than last week and 8,000 larger than the same week in 2016. There are cash sales of around $108 being reported this morning, nearly $1.50 above Wednesday’s FCE auction. This afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed report is expected to show August placements 3.2% lower than last year, with August marketings 6% bigger than 2016 marketings. Cattle on feed for Sept 1 is projected at 2.7% larger than last year. Total beef export commitments are now 9.4% ahead of this point last year.

Oct 17 Cattle are at $111.050, up $0.950,

Dec 17 Cattle are at $117.225, up $1.025,

Feb 18 Cattle are at $120.000, up $0.750,

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle are at $153.200, up $0.025

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle are at $155.775, down $0.100

Nov 17 Feeder Cattle are at $157.350, up $0.525

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are mostly 62.5 to $1.075 lower in the front months on Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 9/19 was 80 cents lower than the previous day at $61.12. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 59 cents higher at $73.63 in the Friday morning report. The loin and butt primal cuts were reported lower. The national base hog carcass was down 20 cents in the AM report at $48.65. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 1,816,000 through Thursday, 10,000 head larger than last week and 60,000 larger than the same week in 2016. Pork export commitments YTD are 7.2% larger than last year at this time.

Oct 17 Hogs are at $56.250, down $1.075,

Dec 17 Hogs are at $57.025, down $0.775

Feb 18 Hogs are at $62.250, down $0.625

Cotton

Cotton futures are mixed at the moment, with Dec 13 points higher, and most other nearby contracts lower. The dollar is weaker this morning after North Korea threatened to detonate a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific. Total export commitments are now 43.5% larger than last year at this time. The USDA updated their AWP to 60.91 cents/lb, down 236 points from the previous week. The Cotlook A index for September 21 was up 15 points from the previous day at 79.50 cents/lb. China sold another 25,900 MT of cotton in Thursday’s auction of state reserves that saw 26,800 MT offered.

Oct 17 Cotton is at 68.95, down 9 points,

Dec 17 Cotton is at 68.38, up 13 points

Mar 18 Cotton is at 67.5, down 8 points

May 18 Cotton is at 68.110, down 6 points


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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