Grains Report 10/08/19

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2019 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2019 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA Sept. USDA 2018
Corn Production 13,611 13,173-13,758 13,799 14,420
Corn Yield 166.8 164.5-169.3 168.2 176.4
Harvested Acres 81.5 80.1-82.0 82.0 81.7
Soybean Production 3,571 3,473-3,634 3,633 4,544
Soybean Yield 47.1 46.0-48.1 47.9 51.6
Harvested Acres 75.8 74.5-77.2 75.9 88.1
Corn harvested Soybean Harvested
Production Yield Acres Production Yield Acres
Advanced Market 13,446 166.0 81.0 3,548 47.0 75.5
AgriSource 13,688 166.7 82.0 3,551 46.8 75.9
Allendale 13,755 167.7 N/A 3,604 47.5 N/A
DC Analysis 13,678 166.8 82.0 3,593 47.4 75.9
Doane 13,500 165.0 81.8 3,565 47.0 75.9
EDF Man 13,735 167.5 82.0 3,567 47.0 75.9
Farm Futures 13,758 167.9 82.0 3,634 47.9 75.9
Grain Cycles 13,738 167.5 82.0 3,604 47.5 75.9
INTL FCStone 13,646 169.3 80.6 3,583 48.1 74.5
Kapco Futures 13,724 168.2 81.6 3,593 47.7 75.3
Sid Love Consulting 13,325 164.5 81.0 3,567 47.0 75.9
North Star Commodity 13,732 168.5 81.5 3,574 47.1 75.9
Prime Ag 13,570 166.5 81.5 3,529 46.5 75.9
RJO Brien 13,653 166.5 N/A 3,559 46.9 N/A
RMC 13,529 166.0 81.5 3,473 46.0 75.5
US Commodities 13,653 166.5 82.0 3,582 47.2 75.9
VantageRM 13,694 167.0 82.0 3,567 47.0 75.9
Western Milling 13,173 164.5 80.1 3,591 46.5 77.2

DJ U.S. October Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2019-20
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 1,684 1,257-1,963 2,190
Soybeans 510 388-584 640
Wheat 1,014 965-1,054 1,014
2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market Concepts 1,450 505 1,005
AgriSource 1,727 448 1,025
Allendale 1,905 582 1,037
DC Analysis 1,597 505 1,004
Doane 1,600 465 1005
EDF Man 1,794 482 1,026
Farm Futures 1,963 533 1,047
Grain Cycles 1,762 552 1,017
INTL FCStone 1,665 584 1,002
Kapco Futures 1,758 520 1,010
Sid Love Consulting 1,489 500 984
North Star Commodity 1,842 535 980
Prime-Ag 1,779 469 1,025
RJO Brien 1,612 510 1,054
RMC 1,689 388 1,025
US Commodities 1,612 498 1,041
VantageRM 1,808 581 999
Western Milling 1,257 521 965

DJ October World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 323.8 319.0-330.0 329.6
Soybeans 110.7 109.0-113.0 112.4
Wheat 277.5 276.0-280.0 277.2
2019-20
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 296.1 291.0-301.0 306.3
Soybeans 96.9 92.3-108.8 99.2
Wheat 285.7 280.5-288.7 286.5
2018-19 2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 319.0 109.0 276.0 296.0 97.0 283.0
Allendale 322.2 110.6 278.5 300.9 97.8 288.7
Doane 321.0 110.0 277.5 292.5 95.0 285.5
EDF Man N/A N/A N/A 296.0 95.0 284.0
Farm Futures N/A N/A N/A 298.0 96.3 286.7
INTL FCStone 321.0 113.0 276.3 295.8 108.8 286.9
North Star Comm 330.0 112.0 277.2 301.0 95.5 286.0
Prime-Ag 320.0 111.0 278.0 294.0 95.0 287.0
RMC 321.2 109.8 280.0 291.4 92.3 287.5
US Commodities 329.6 109.1 277.2 291.0 95.1 280.5
Western Milling 330.0 112.0 277.2 301.0 98.0 287.0

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Oct 7
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING OCT 03, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 10/03/2019 09/26/2019 10/04/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 2,994 2,595 196 8,625 3,743
CORN 466,521 421,735 1,452,577 2,018,784 5,907,650
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 72 170
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 798 1,294
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 88,293 15,383 62,780 189,351 71,484
SOYBEANS 1,038,988 986,256 608,794 4,193,454 3,579,958
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 385,259 502,915 448,294 8,906,748 7,365,932
Total 1,982,055 1,928,884 2,572,641 15,317,832 16,930,231
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 8
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct. 09, 2019 159 Oct 04, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct. 09, 2019 2 Oct 01, 2019

Crop Progress
Date 6-Oct 29-Sep 2018 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 83 77 76 75
Cotton Harvested 25 16 24 20
Corn Dented 93 88 100 99
Corn Mature 58 43 92 85
Corn Harvested 15 11 33 27
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 72 55 90 87
Soybeans Harvested 14 7 31 34
Sorghum Mature 65 54 71 73
Sorghum Harvested 33 30 38 40
Rice Harvested 76 68 78 80
Spring Wheat Harvested 91 90 100 99
Sugar beets Harvested 19 16 37 40
Sunflowers Harvested 1 5 5
Peanuts Harvested 41 26 31 30
Winter Wheat Planted 52 39 55 53
Winter Wheat Emerged 26 11 28 26

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 4 15 42 32 7
Cotton Last Week 3 17 40 34 6
Cotton Last Year 6 19 33 32 10

Corn This Week 4 11 29 45 11
Corn Last Week 4 10 29 46 11
Corn Last Year 4 8 20 47 21

Soybeans This Week 4 11 32 45 8
Soybeans Last Week 3 10 32 46 9
Soybeans Last Year 3 7 22 49 19

Sorghum This Week 2 5 28 51 14
Sorghum Last Week 2 6 27 50 15
Sorghum Last Year 5 11 29 44 11

Rice This Week 1 5 25 47 22
Rice Last Week 1 5 25 46 23
Rice Last Year 0 4 22 58 16

Peanuts This Week 4 10 32 49 5
Peanuts Last Week 2 10 33 50 5
Peanuts Last Year 1 5 24 56 14

Pastures and Ranges This Week 10 17 28 37 8
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 8 17 30 37 8
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 8 14 30 40 8

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed, with Chicago SRW and Chicago HRW a little lower and Minneapolis Spring Wheat prices a little higher. The support in the Minneapolis market came in response to a freeze and snow even that happened in the northern Great Plains and in western Canada this week. Very little progress has been made in the last part of the harvest in the US and it seems that there is still a lot of Wheat to be harvested in Canada. Good progress was made in planting the Winter crops. The Winter Wheat crop is getting planted in the central and southern Great Plains as well and probably also in the Pacific Northwest. Southern Midwest Wheat will be planted soon as the Soybeans harvest is finally getting underway. USDA will issue another monthly supply and demand update on Thursday but few changes in ending stocks levels are anticipated for this month. The Small Grains production report showed Winter Wheat production about as expected and uncertain Spring Wheat and Durum estimates that will be revised next month.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and storms. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see a big storm hit by midweek. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather after the ig storm moves out in the next day or two.. Temperatures should be below normal. China bought 130,000 tons of White Wheat from the US.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 502, 506, and 522 December. Support is at 485, 481, and 478 December, with resistance at 494, 501, and 506 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 401, 399, and 397 December, with resistance at 410, 414, and 420 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 516 December. Support is at 531, 522, and 518 December, and resistance is at 546, 550, and 552 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower as the harvest moved to and past the halfway point. Harvest activities are about over in Gulf Coast areas with many producers reporting less production than last year. Smut has been a big problem in Texas although quality reports have held up. Mississippi yields are reported as variable and the crop is grading mostly #2. Arkansas yield reports are unknown at this point but quality reports indicate that a very high quality crop is being harvested. Good weather in Arkansas and Mississippi should see the harvest wrap up in the next week or two. Demand for long grains in the export market has been strong and Mexico has been a particularly active buyer. Demand has waned a bit on the recent rally but prices are still competitive and sales have not been very bad at all. Asian prices have been mixed with Vietnamese prices very weak. USDA will issue new production and supply and demand reports and most look for another cut in production.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions this week except for some showers today. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1147 and 1111 November. Support is at 1155, 1143, and 1126 November, with resistance at 1171, 1179, and 1183 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher but Oats were lower. Ideas of losses coming from a big freeze event later this week in areas to the west and north of Chicago helped support prices. USDA showed that progress remains far behind and that some significant damage along with some yield loss is very likely. Futures rallied in response to the USDA quarterly stocks reports that showed less Corn in the country than anticipated. There is still more than 2.0 billion bushels of Corn out there, but the final total was almost 400 million bushels less than anticipated. The report has important ramifications for the coming crop year as well as the September estimate serves as ending stocks for the 2018-19 season and beginning stocks for the 2019-20 marketing year. It means that the potential is there for lower ending stocks than original projections in the supply and demand estimates on Thursday and makes getting as much Corn harvested this year that much more important. USDA will also issue a production estimate but probably has no real idea of what is going to be the final production as the harvest is just now getting underway in most of the country. Yields so far have been good in parts of Iowa and fin a few places east of the Mississippi River, but below historical averages in many areas east of the river. Demand for US Corn has also been disappointing so far this year. The export pace is down to almost half of last year and ethanol demand has been lower than last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 397 December. Support is at 385, 381, and 377 December, and resistance is at 392, 393, and 397 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 290 and 304 December. Support is at 279, 278, and 275 December, and resistance is at 286, 289, and 290 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were a little lower despite news that China bought US Soybeans in anticipation of good progress in trade talks that will continue this Thursday and Friday. The market is also concerned about the weather that will happen later this week. There is the risk of significant quality losses and perhaps yield losses from the event. USDA showed slow crop progress and a slight deterioration in crop condition in its reports last night. The market also reacted to the USDA quarterly stocks report that showed significantly less stocks than the market had expected. USDA overestimated both the Corn and Soybeans crops last year and was able to change Soybeans production estimates on Monday in response to the final stocks estimates. Corn estimates can only be changed in January. Traders are waiting now for the next round of production and supply and demand reports that will be released on Thursday. Harvest activities are only now getting started so the data that USDA will have to work with on production will be less than normal. Initial yield reports have not been real strong so USDA can find less but just how much less is still a big question. USDA will also have to work with the demand side of the ledger as trade problems still need o be resolved. Demand so far has been good but how USDA sees demand is an open question. Either way, the potential for reduced ending stocks is great and these ideas should help support futures prices this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 925, 927, and 935 November. Support is at 908, 905, and 899 November, and resistance is at 921, 924, and 936 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 310.00 and 324.00 December. Support is at 300.00, 297.00, and 296.00 December, and resistance is at 305.00, 306.00, and 309.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3050 December. Support is at 2980, 2950, and 2930 December, with resistance at 3020, 3040, and 3050 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on slow harvest progress and fund buying. Support also came from the rally in Chicago Soybean Oil. Snow is expected in western areas today but cold weather are expected through the end of the week. Reports indicate that the harvest is only about one-third complete. Palm Oil was a little higher on stronger outside markets and reports of improving demand. Vegetable oils and Crude Oil are firm today. Traders anticipated improved export demand for the first third of the month when private surveyors release estimates. The charts show that futures have rejected a new move lower and are back inside the bottoming range. Higher competing vegetable oils could spark a rally in Palm Oil later this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 465.00 and 476.00 November. Support is at 459.00, 455.00, and 451.00 November, with resistance at 463.00, 468.00, and 470.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2130, 2120, and 2100 December, with resistance at 2180, 2200, and 2220 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers possible later this weekend. Temperatures should average near to below normal early this week and below normal by this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October +32 Dec +165 Dec +65 Sep +26 Nov +12 Dec N/A
November +44 Dec +80 Dec +36 Nov
December +51 Dec +87 Dec +35 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close for Oct 7
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for Oct. 7, 2019.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 438.70 -22.00 Nov 2019 up 1.50
Track Thunder Bay 472.60 10.00 Nov 2019 up 1.90
Track Vancouver 482.60 20.00 Nov 2019 up 1.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – October 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 527.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 532.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 537.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 557.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 530.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 535.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 540.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 560.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 527.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 430.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,125.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 140.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1890)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 97,088 lots, or 3.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 3,280 3,373 3,280 3,367 3,357 3,346 -11 114 290
Jan-20 3,357 3,393 3,353 3,376 3,346 3,375 29 82,682 216,846
Mar-20 3,305 3,406 3,305 3,406 3,363 3,355 -8 4 34
May-20 3,670 3,694 3,650 3,673 3,646 3,674 28 13,990 66,270
Jul-20 3,698 3,712 3,698 3,706 3,650 3,708 58 12 22
Sep-20 3,722 3,745 3,717 3,730 3,700 3,734 34 286 2,658
Corn
Turnover: 695,040 lots, or 12.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 1,781 1,793 1,778 1,786 1,792 1,785 -7 21,580 43,110
Jan-20 1,823 1,829 1,810 1,824 1,819 1,821 2 456,054 1,233,822
Mar-20 1,846 1,850 1,835 1,848 1,846 1,845 -1 97,994 84,672
May-20 1,885 1,903 1,884 1,892 1,894 1,892 -2 103,202 432,678
Jul-20 1,915 1,929 1,912 1,921 1,920 1,917 -3 1,250 4,764
Sep-20 1,949 1,958 1,942 1,949 1,953 1,948 -5 14,960 54,644
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,884,694 lots, or 54.74 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 2,930 2,980 2,930 2,946 2,909 2,962 53 37,512 48,730
Dec-19 3,000 3,000 2,941 2,942 2,906 2,967 61 88,630 72,454
Jan-20 2,930 2,945 2,903 2,910 2,871 2,925 54 1,358,160 1,749,910
Mar-20 2,889 2,908 2,884 2,884 2,844 2,898 54 64 788
May-20 2,798 2,832 2,785 2,802 2,755 2,807 52 350,982 752,956
Jul-20 2,799 2,836 2,797 2,805 2,762 2,812 50 320 1,544
Aug-20 2,813 2,837 2,810 2,833 2,797 2,825 28 30 130
Sep-20 2,840 2,862 2,822 2,836 2,794 2,842 48 48,996 101,890
Palm Oil
Turnover: 374,888 lots, or 17.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-19 – – – 4,880 4,880 4,880 0 0 0
Nov-19 4,836 4,836 4,836 4,836 4,914 4,836 -78 4 4
Dec-19 – – – 4,742 4,742 4,742 0 0 4
Jan-20 4,730 4,732 4,658 4,716 4,684 4,696 12 325,164 442,832
Feb-20 5,144 5,146 4,784 4,784 4,810 4,912 102 148 716
Mar-20 – – – 4,876 4,876 4,876 0 0 2
Apr-20 – – – 4,916 4,916 4,916 0 0 4
May-20 4,980 5,002 4,946 4,994 4,956 4,974 18 49,128 130,776
Jun-20 – – – 5,132 5,132 5,132 0 0 6
Jul-20 – – – 4,976 4,976 4,976 0 0 602
Aug-20 – – – 4,976 4,976 4,976 0 0 2
Sep-20 5,040 5,064 5,012 5,056 5,024 5,044 20 444 9,604
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 419,628 lots, or 24.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 6,078 6,078 5,954 5,954 6,078 6,030 -48 40 4
Dec-19 – – – 5,894 5,894 5,894 0 0 12
Jan-20 5,950 5,970 5,900 5,938 5,882 5,932 50 353,656 668,852
Mar-20 – – – 5,974 5,900 5,974 74 0 512
May-20 6,000 6,032 5,970 5,990 5,946 5,996 50 65,380 226,584
Jul-20 – – – 6,036 6,036 6,036 0 0 524
Aug-20 – – – 5,924 5,924 5,924 0 0 0
Sep-20 6,050 6,088 6,040 6,066 6,014 6,062 48 552 19,182
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.